Macro Policies Dominate the Market, SS Futures Fluctuate [SMM Analysis]

Published: Apr 18, 2025 17:14

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This week, the most-traded SS contract stopped falling and began to rebound, with prices generally fluctuating upward. As of 10:30 AM on April 18, the SS2506 was quoted at 12,785 yuan/mt, up 135 yuan/mt compared to last week. From a macro perspective, last week, the market experienced a "triple kill" of stocks, currencies, and bonds due to the impact of US tariff policies, raising concerns about the risk of a "Trump recession." Subsequently, the US tariff policies eased, temporarily delaying the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on some countries for 90 days and granting tariff exemptions on certain products, which alleviated the previous pessimistic expectations in the stainless steel market. Meanwhile, Indonesia officially confirmed the new tax on nickel products this week, which will take effect on April 26. This undoubtedly increases the overall cost of nickel products, and it is expected that the production cost of stainless steel will also rise as a result. On the fundamental side, port arrivals decreased this week due to strong winds. However, as the current market trend remains unclear, downstream sentiment is cautious, and market transactions mainly consist of low-priced futures market spot goods, resulting in limited overall trading. This week, the futures market trend was still heavily influenced by macro policies. Although there was an upward intention in the market, the overall sentiment remained cautious, with the trend mainly fluctuating. It is expected that if no new significant macro disturbances emerge next week, stainless steel futures may continue the trend of fluctuating upward.

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